azajir.wordpress.com
Q Are we seeing the worst in terms of home or do you think it will getworse ? Does the industry have a forecast of when it mightr be better ? A Houston is now slipping into the gripsa of the national recessiom and we will to some degree be subjectg to how the national economy performs, so probably a bit worse. The one consensuws that I consistently hear and read is that as the recoveru begins andtakes hold, Houston will be one of the very firsg cities to recover. Q Communities that thoughg they would be ina sell-out situation at this pointy are now seeing themselves with lots stillk for sale. On the flip-side, there are developers who are creatinnew communities.
Given the lower housing should developers or builders wait for thingxs toeven out, or would that presentf a problem ? A This reminds me of the proverbiapl question, “Is the glass half empty or half full?” New-home supplu and the vacant developed lot while not in perfect are certainly in pretty good shape and with any uptici in sales we could quickly see a shortage in This becomes even more acute as you “grade” the inventory into the communities, “B” communities, etc.
There will be a numbedr of lots and communities that will probably take a long timein “cominvg back” as they were developed in locations and in a mannedr that was directed at the “subprime” buyer and, as we all the buyers are still out there but the financing is not. Markeft share for “A” communities will continue to grow as buyerse seek the safetyof master-planned communities. Q Because the only placesx to get large parcels of land are farther out from the city has urban sprawl become a problem forHoustonn ? A What is the center of the city? Is it downtown or the Galleria/Wesrt Loop? Both have 30 million-plus square feet of office space.
The point being that Houston now has multiple work centers that have allowed people to livefartherr out, but not have to commutes longer and longer distances. Thesw work centers include downtown, Texas Medical Center, Greenway Plaza, Galleria/Westr Loop, Westchase, Energy Corridor, Sugar Land, Clear Lake Greenspoint and The Woodlands. To meet our housiny demand in thecoming years, our region will not only requirew continued development in the suburbs, but a vibranyt redevelopment effort within the central city as well. Q What do you thinok the future holds for the home industry over the next fiveyearzs ?
A The short answer is a moderate but steadu recovery that grows to a stabilizes annual demand of approximately 1.5 million new homes per The U.S. is the third most populousx nation onthe planet, only surpassedd by China and India. The U.S. is currentlty growing at slightly less than1 percent, but in nominalp terms by more than 3 milliom new people per year (birthsa over deaths plus in-migration). Houston aloned grows by approximately 120,000 new people per year. These folks have to live and morethan 100,000 units of the current housinh stock in this country need to be replaced on an annualk basis due to functional obsolescence.
Q Sincre Houston isn’t doing as bad as otherr areas, what should builders and developers be focusing onhere ? A I hope that we use this “dowm time” as an opportunity to reflect on the past five What did we do right? What did we do wrong?? What can we do better The development and building community should focus on buildingf sustainable communities and homes — communities and homez that will grow better over time so they don’ft become part of that housing stock that needs to be replaceds on an annual basis.
While the salea in our communities are continuinf at a veryrobust level, I know at Newland, we are continually looking back to evaluate what workef and what didn’t. We are always looking to the home to try and understand whatthey want, need and most what they are willing to pay for. Thanok someone that tastes do change; otherwisr we could all still bewearingg double-knit leisure suits or beehive