End of recession may be in sight - Business First of Louisville:

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percentage points in May to 85, based on a 1997 benchmarj of 100. The relative stability in the UO Index over the past three months is consistent with a pattermn ofeconomic stabilization, but fallz short of a turn that woulf conclusively mark the end of the recession, said Tim Duy, directorr of the Oregon Economic Forum and a UO adjunct assistant professor, in a Oregon labor market data continue to be Initial jobless claims edged downward but remain at a leve l that suggests further declines in nonfarm payrolls.
Still, initial claims remaijn well below the peak of December as the pace of economi deterioration has slowed Employment servicespayroll — largely temporary help agenciesa — fell in May, but, the rate of decline is Duy said. Nonfarm payrolls (not includer in the index) fell by just 100 jobs during May, an abrup slowing compared to the recent It is difficult to see a substantial improvement in thejobs however, with initial claims remaining at high levels, Duy said. The unemploymen rate rose to 12.4 percent. Residentiao housing permits continuedto decline, fallingv to just 627.
The typical seasonal boost in building activity islargelh absent, a testament to persistent weakness in the housing Builders are finding it difficult to competes in an environment of rising foreclosures and tighter underwriting conditions for home mortgages, Duy The Oregon weight-distance tax reversedd gains seen the previous month. In contrast, new orders for nondefensed nonaircraftcapital goods, adjusted for inflation, rose in May to the highestr level since December 2008. Despite the low the relative stability since the beginning of the year is a hopefu sign that the worst declinee in business spending arebehinx us, Duy said. U.S.
consumer confidence rose againin May, a furthef indication that consumer spending has he added. The Oregon economy likelyy remained in recessionin May. That the pace of deteriorationjhas slowed. The six-month annualizedc change in the index improveed significantly over the pasttwo months, from -11.8 percengt in March to -8 percen t in May. Similar improvement signaled an impendint end to the2001 recession, and would be consistenty with the prediction that economic growth would firm in the secondd half of 2009. Still, Duy said, cautiom is warranted.
The UO Index has not yet turned andthe six-month change remains well below rates normalluy consistent with economic expansions, and more than half of the indexc components remain below six-month ago Finally, there is a strong possibility of a “jobless as the economy continues to face structural adjustmeng issues that limit the pace of growth.